This is the time of year when all the pundits, journalists, forecasters and owners of crystal globes issues their predictions. Mine are not very rosy!

  1. We’ll spend most of our time playing defense. The Republican majority in the House together with Obama and the Democrats looking toward the 2012 election will put progressives on the defensive in more ways than even my creative mind can fathom. This won’t just be about health care and taxes, but about labor unions, school voucher programs, gay rights and constitutional amendments. It will be ugly and the Democrats will play softball when they are really in World War III.
  2. Unemployment will not improve. 2011 will bring continuing pain and struggle to US workers especially if we look at the broader U-6 measure of unemployment, which includes people who have stopped looking for work or who can’t find full-time jobs. This more accurate unemployment rate is currently around 17%. In critical populations like native-born African-Americans with less than a high school education it’s even worse. While the basic unemployment rate among these Americans is 28.8%, the U-6 measure is 42.2%, and it doesn’t appear that the situation is going to get any better anytime soon.
  3. The next financial crisis is just around the corner. Despite record corporate profits in the third quarter of 2010, and others misleading rays of hope that have been propelling the stock market ever higher, we’re still in deep shit. The Republicans’ obsession with deficit reduction, nervous consumers, states edging toward bankruptcy, the exposure of ever greater financial misdeeds, a resurgence of highly leveraged deals that skirt the new rules, and the collapse of more EU economies will move us to the precipice of a new crisis.
  4. Commodity and natural resource prices will skyrocket. Though food prices in the US are forecasted to only increase 2–3% in 2011, the Food Price Index of the UN rose 32% from June to December 2010. Internationally more people will starve, riot and decry the manipulation of commodity prices that destroys lives and livelihoods. The prices of gasoline and diesel are already edging up, with some predicting crude at $100/barrel this year. And we’re now seeing supply shortages in rare earths, which are needed for tech goods and renewable energy.
  5. Violent protests will erupt in the USA. The eyes of the world won’t be on British workers protesting an increase in the retirement age or French students protesting tuition increases. They’ll be watching what’s happening right here in the USA as we see our first outbreaks of civil disobedience. This time they won’t be by Greenpeace but by members of the working class who will finally reach their wit’s end and realize they are being screwed from every direction.
Share This